Friday, January 14, 2005

Mesic Vs. Kosor

This Sunday second round of elections for president will be held. And some interesting things has emerged out. This elections are interesting to observe, as I feel that today people has more freedom, more right to information, and less respect to someone because his “backup” in various organizations or parties. Astonishing number of facts and scandals has emerged out during this elections, so I believe that politicians were surprised about this. They didn’t expected it because in the past, media freedom has been restricted by ruling structures, so they neglected the possibility that their fault will come out. I hope this will bring us more honest and qualified leaders in the future.

Rising of democratic culture

The other thing tat surprises me, is the opinion of political experts and analysts about validations of the candidates. I will go back to question of spirituality. As human consciousness is changing, the way that people act is changing, and this cannot be predicted by old means. As we in Croatia are fast changing society, people become to feel differently in very short time, they learn much, and they change the way of looking very fast, mostly due to impact of information’s available through internet and other media. As an illustration of this statement we can use the fact that voters from less developed regions(where less people use internet, and where people have slightly different perception of reality and information’s) are changing much slower than in Zagreb or Istria for example.

What’s experts prevision?

Lets go back to political experts. I’m very surprised that most of them gave advantage to Mrs. Kosor in TV debates held during this week. Their arguments was that Kosor was more concentrated, more prepared (she had paper materials with her), that Mesic looked bored during debate and so on. But, US election has shown that people doesn’t elect the president because of intelligent look, or good language expression, but the key factors are credibility, consistency, and leadership qualities. Off course, those things cannot be determined only by listening to words, but it is more like a kind of feeling that one has about a person, and in those qualities I see clear advantage of current president Mesic, he seamed less fake and more natural, and such persons tend to be more credible in eyes of people. Kosor has concentrated her strategy around pointing to weaknesses and errors of current president in past years, but this doesn’t prove that she could do better. Again, here also I see parallels with US election, and Bush vs. Kerry debates.

Elections in Bosnia And Herzegovina

Some interesting facts emerged yesterday, about elections for Croatian president in Bosnia And Herzegovina. Yes, you have read correctly, Croatians in Bosnia have the right to vote on elections for Croatian president, regardless that they live in Herzegovina for generations. Now, not only that they vote, although they don’t live in Croatia, but, according to yesterday news, there was severe violations of electoral rules. Manny officials of Croatian ruling party HDZ were sitting in electoral boards, which is against law, thousands of people where inscribed on electoral list on the day of elections(which is against the law also), what fires the suspicion that some of them voted two times. Some people that are dead for years are found on list as they “voted” for someone, probably for Mrs. Kosor as about 90% of voters in Bosnia has voted for her! In some places 90% of voters has come out to vote for president: president of other country! Incredible isn’t it? Especially if we think that in Croatia about 50% of voters has came out. Now, their “huge” patriotism should be put on severe examinations, when they gave the country they “love”, by illegal means additional expense of about 10 Million of euro, needed for second round of elections. In any way, I personally consider that it is wrong that people who live from generations in other countries, decide about our leadership, especially when their opinion is opposite to opinion of majority in Croatia.

Prediction

To test my "prediction capabilities", I will try to predict the result according to my perception. Let’s say at least 60% for current president Mesic, because Kosor has failed to establish her as leader and serious candidate, as most are perceiving her as an instrument of prime minister Sanader. Most of them who will vote for her will actually vote against Mesic, and it is well known that elections cannot be won this way. Her strength on the other hand is support of ruling party with waste volume of voters and mechanism to mobilize them. But some of them will vote for Mesic also.
On the other hand, Mesic has shown him self as more stabile, secure, and persistent although some imperfections (for example his tendency to make jokes, or some statements that he made which Kosor tried to exploit in her campaign) that are well known, and he is not trying to hide them at all.
Recent events regarding electoral fraud, information according to which(source index.hr) Mrs. Kosor lives in the flat where two minors where evicted prior to Mrs. Kosor arrival, and publication of Mr. Mesic testimonial from Haag Court in the status of protected witness (according to Court of Haag punishment for this is 7 years of prison) certainly aren’t going on her hand. We will know on Monday.

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